👀A Quick Look

• Developments
  Estrella in Goodyear and Silver Cross Ranch in San Tan Valley are making waves with hundreds of new homes and enhanced amenities. Mesa's Medina Station proposes a mixed-use development with incentives for high-quality retail, while Peoria shifts its focus to creating a 6,700-acre Innovation Core to boost employment opportunities.

• What to Do This Week
  Enjoy fine art and wine at the Scottsdale Waterfront Fine Art & Wine Festival, catch the nostalgic performance of The Marvelous Wonderettes at Hale Theatre, or dive into the festive vibes of the Arizona Renaissance Festival.

• Real Estate Market Trends
  Sales of $1M+ homes surged nearly 58% year-to-date compared to 2024, pushing luxury market activity to new highs. Meanwhile, buyer leverage is growing across most cities as supply rises faster than demand, signaling a more competitive environment for sellers.

🚧Newest Developments

Estrella Master-Planned Community Expansion

Lennar Corp. and Richmond American Homes will break ground on 508 new homes in the Montecito village of Goodyear’s Estrella community. With 50% of Estrella's 20,000 acres still available for development, this master-planned community offers resort-style amenities, hiking trails, and a yacht club, making it one of the most unique living experiences in the Phoenix metro area.

Silver Cross Ranch Launches in San Tan Valley

Scottsdale-based El Dorado Holdings sold 363 lots to homebuilders for the first phase of Silver Cross Ranch. This new master-planned community will eventually include nearly 1,200 homes. Significant infrastructure investment, including $10.5 million in wastewater facilities, ensures long-term viability and addresses critical utility challenges in the area.

Mesa Incentivizes Medina Station Mixed-Use Project

Mesa City Council is incentivizing developers to create high-quality retail and dining experiences in the Medina Station project. Proposed amenities include a unique "Restaurant Galley" concept, multifamily units, and over 200,000 square feet of retail space. This project is expected to redefine the commercial landscape in northeast Mesa.

Peoria Focuses on Economic Development Over Airpark

Peoria has partnered with the Arizona State Land Department to develop the 6,700-acre Peoria Innovation Core, shifting focus from building an airpark. With $140 million in infrastructure investment, the city aims to attract industries like semiconductors and healthcare, potentially creating 15,000–20,000 local jobs.

🤔What to Do This Week!

• The Marvelous Wonderettes

  • Where: Hale Centre Theatre, Gilbert

  • When: Various showtimes through February

  • Enjoy a musical comedy packed with hits from the 1950s and 1960s as the Wonderettes take you on a journey of friendship, love, and laughter. Perfect for fans of timeless tunes and feel-good stories.
    Learn More & Tickets

• Scottsdale Waterfront Fine Art & Wine Festival

  • Where: Scottsdale Waterfront

  • When: Jan 31st, Feb 1st-2nd, 2025

  • Stroll along the Scottsdale Waterfront while enjoying exceptional fine art, live music, and world-class wine. A relaxing weekend activity for art lovers and wine enthusiasts alike.
    Learn More

• Arizona Renaissance Festival

  • Where: Gold Canyon

  • When: Weekends, February 1–March 30th, 2025

  • Travel back in time to a 16th-century village filled with jousting knights, artisans, entertainers, and more. This family-friendly festival is one of Arizona’s most anticipated annual events.
    Get Tickets

🏡 Real Estate Trends

Luxury Market Growth

• Year-to-date (YTD) closings in Greater Phoenix (Jan 1–24) show a 5.6% overall increase in sales compared to 2024.

• Homes priced $1M+ saw a staggering 57.7% increase, while sales of homes $5M+ jumped 157%, marking a significant shift toward high-end properties.

• In contrast, homes priced under $1M rose only 1.2%, highlighting the growing dominance of the luxury market.

• Takeaway: While the luxury market booms, those operating in mid to lower price ranges may face steadier, less dynamic conditions. Luxury sellers should remain mindful of cyclical trends.

Cromford® Market Index (CMI) Trends

• The CMI has peaked and is trending downward, signaling a weakening seller’s market across the Phoenix metro area.

• Over the past week:

  • 9 cities remain seller's markets, 3 are balanced, and 5 shifted to buyer's markets.

  • Cities like Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, and Maricopa saw notable shifts favoring buyers, while southeast cities like Gilbert, Mesa, and Queen Creek showed minor gains for sellers.

• Takeaway: Sellers face increasing pressure as buyers gain leverage with rising supply and subdued demand. Strategic pricing and negotiations will be key.

Supply & Demand Imbalance

• While supply is growing rapidly, demand is rising at a much slower pace, causing buyers to gain significant negotiation power.

• Sellers must act cautiously to avoid overestimating the strength of their market position.

Key Insights:

• Luxury sellers should capitalize on the current market strength while remaining aware of potential cyclical downturns.

• Mid-range and first-time buyers may see more opportunities as supply rises, providing greater leverage in negotiations.

• For all sellers, aligning pricing strategies with current trends is essential to attract offers in a shifting market.

🌵See You Next Week in the Desert

Thank you for joining us this week on The Desert Real! We’re thrilled to have you as part of our growing community!

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-Brad